China's tinplate industry has experienced a remarkable evolution over the past two decades. This journey began in the late 20th century and early 21st century, much later compared to other steel materials. The global history of tinplate traces back to its first application in Germany during the 14th century for food packaging, followed by significant advancements in the UK during the 17th century. The United States and Japan later spearheaded the industry's growth, with China gradually emerging as a key player.
China's tinplate production capacity has expanded significantly, from 2 million tons in 2002 to over 10 million tons by 2015. According to Mysteel's 2023 survey, the country’s total tinplating capacity reached 7.32 million tons, with East and North China accounting for 75% of production. State-owned enterprises held a 23% market share. Notably, new capacity is projected to increase by 8.88% in 2024, with substantial capacity additions expected in 2025, indicating intensifying market competition.
In 2024, China's tinplate and tin-free steel capacity is expected to grow by 9.39%, reaching an effective capacity of 9.9 million tons, a 290,000-ton reduction due to obsolete production lines being phased out. Historically, China's tinplate production peaked between 2011 and 2021 but faced a downturn due to overcapacity and profitability challenges. Export volumes surged in 2011, growing tenfold from 80,000 tons in 2010 to over 800,000 tons in 2011. However, excessive expansion without matching domestic consumption led to fierce competition, forcing many enterprises to suspend production or shut down altogether.
Data from Mysteel reveals that as of October 2024, the tinplate production rate stood at 83.95%, with a capacity utilization rate of 71.67%, reflecting a 3.13% monthly decline. Tinplate production totaled 44.43 million tons in October, while cumulative production from January to October reached 4.3166 million tons, an 11% year-on-year increase. Similarly, tin-free steel production witnessed significant growth, increasing by 37.81% year-on-year. These figures highlight the gradual recovery and expansion in supply driven by resumed operations and new production lines.
The profit margins of China's tinplate industry have gradually narrowed over the years. Tinplate production costs are influenced by raw material prices, particularly hot-rolled steel and tin ingots. From 2021 to 2024, average production costs fluctuated significantly, with average profits per ton declining due to slow price adjustments in downstream markets. In 2024, the average production cost stood at 5,700 yuan/ton, while the average profit was 396 yuan/ton, indicating ongoing challenges in maintaining profitability amid rising raw material costs.
While the tinplate industry faces short-term supply pressures due to capacity expansion, these changes could drive long-term structural adjustments. As outdated production lines are replaced, the industry is expected to progress towards a balanced supply-demand dynamic. These developments align with China's goals of achieving high-quality growth and sustainability in the metal packaging sector.
With these transformative trends, the tinplate industry is poised to remain a vital component of China’s industrial landscape, adapting to global market demands and advancing toward a greener and more competitive future.
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